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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Juin 2019

Juin 2019 - Juillet 2019 - Août 2019 - Septembre 2019 - Octobre 2019 - Novembre 2019


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/05/2019 00Z-2.2 °C-1.5 °C-1.1 °C+0.7 °C-1.3 °C-3.5 °C-1.2 °C
21/05/2019 18Z-1.3 °C-1.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C-0.6 °C-1.7 °C+0.2 °C
21/05/2019 12Z+2.5 °C+1 °C+2.9 °C+3.4 °C+3.4 °C+1 °C+3.6 °C
21/05/2019 06Z-1.6 °C-1.1 °C-0.2 °C+1.2 °C-0.8 °C-2.8 °C-0.5 °C
21/05/2019 00Z+1 °C-0.6 °C+0.5 °C+2 °C+2.3 °C-0.6 °C+2.3 °C
20/05/2019 18Z+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+2 °C+2 °C+0.8 °C-0.5 °C+0.8 °C
20/05/2019 12Z-1.2 °C-1.4 °C-0.8 °C+0.8 °C-0.2 °C-2.9 °C-0.4 °C
20/05/2019 06Z-0.5 °C-0.9 °C-1.1 °C+0.9 °C+0.3 °C-2 °C+1.3 °C
20/05/2019 00Z-1 °C-1.1 °C-0.4 °C+0.7 °C-0.1 °C-1.6 °C+1 °C
19/05/2019 18Z+1.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+1.8 °C+2.2 °C-0.5 °C+2.7 °C
19/05/2019 12Z+0.7 °C+0.7 °C+0.8 °C+1.4 °C+1.4 °C+0.4 °C+3.1 °C
19/05/2019 06Z-0.5 °C-0.8 °C-0.7 °C+1.2 °C+0.6 °C-2.2 °C+1.1 °C
19/05/2019 00Z+0.5 °C-1 °C+0.5 °C+2 °C+1.7 °C-1 °C+1.3 °C
18/05/2019 18Z-1.2 °C+-0 °C-0.1 °C+0.6 °C-0.4 °C-1.5 °C+0.8 °C
18/05/2019 12Z-2.7 °C-2.3 °C-2.8 °C+0.3 °C-1.3 °C-4.5 °C-1.7 °C
18/05/2019 06Z+2.3 °C+0.4 °C+3 °C+4.1 °C+2.9 °C+0.5 °C+2.6 °C
18/05/2019 00Z-1.4 °C-1.4 °C-0.6 °C+0.9 °C-0.3 °C-3.1 °C-0.7 °C
17/05/2019 18Z-0.8 °C-1.6 °C-1.6 °C+1 °C+0.3 °C-2.9 °C+0.4 °C
17/05/2019 12Z+-0 °C+-0 °C+1.6 °C+2.3 °C+0.7 °C-1.2 °C+0.5 °C
17/05/2019 06Z-1.6 °C-0.7 °C-1 °C+1.1 °C-0.7 °C-2.8 °C-1 °C
17/05/2019 00Z-1 °C-0.8 °C-0.4 °C+2.2 °C+-0 °C-3.1 °C-0.8 °C
16/05/2019 18Z-0.2 °C+0.2 °C+1.6 °C+1.7 °C+0.5 °C-1.1 °C+0.7 °C
16/05/2019 12Z-0.4 °C-0.5 °C-0.1 °C+1.9 °C+0.7 °C-2 °C+0.3 °C
16/05/2019 06Z+1.4 °C+0.7 °C+3.2 °C+3.3 °C+2 °C+0.1 °C+1.8 °C
16/05/2019 00Z+1.3 °C+0.5 °C+2.2 °C+2.3 °C+1.7 °C+0.5 °C+2.7 °C
15/05/2019 18Z+1 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C+1.7 °C+2.3 °C+0.1 °C+3 °C
15/05/2019 12Z-1.6 °C-1.1 °C+-0 °C+1.2 °C-0.6 °C-3.1 °C-0.7 °C
15/05/2019 06Z+0.7 °C+0.6 °C+1 °C+1.6 °C+1.8 °C-0.3 °C+2.3 °C
15/05/2019 00Z-1.6 °C-2 °C-2.3 °C+0.6 °C-0.4 °C-3.9 °C-0.7 °C
14/05/2019 18Z+2.7 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+2 °C+3.3 °C+2 °C+4.8 °C
Moyenne-0.2 °C-0.4 °C+0.3 °C+1.6 °C+0.7 °C-1.5 °C+1 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/05/2019 00Z-2.3 °C-2.3 °C-1.5 °C-1.6 °C-2.1 °C-2.3 °C-2.1 °C
21/05/2019 18Z-0.9 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C-2 °C-1 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C
21/05/2019 12Z+3.5 °C+1 °C+2.5 °C+2.1 °C+4 °C+2.7 °C+3.6 °C
21/05/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-2.1 °C-1.7 °C-1.4 °C-1.3 °C-1.9 °C-1.7 °C
21/05/2019 00Z+2.2 °C-0.4 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C+2.9 °C+1.3 °C+2.3 °C
20/05/2019 18Z+1 °C+-0 °C+1 °C+1.3 °C+1 °C+0.9 °C+0.6 °C
20/05/2019 12Z-0.8 °C-2.5 °C-1.8 °C-1.1 °C-0.5 °C-1.3 °C-0.7 °C
20/05/2019 06Z+0.1 °C-1.8 °C-1.5 °C-1.4 °C+0.4 °C-0.4 °C+1.1 °C
20/05/2019 00Z-0.2 °C-0.4 °C-0.4 °C-1 °C-0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.7 °C
19/05/2019 18Z+2.2 °C-0.3 °C+0.1 °C+0.6 °C+2.8 °C+0.9 °C+2.5 °C
19/05/2019 12Z+1.2 °C+1 °C+0.9 °C-0.2 °C+1.5 °C+1.9 °C+2.6 °C
19/05/2019 06Z-0.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.5 °C-0.8 °C+0.6 °C-0.6 °C+0.7 °C
19/05/2019 00Z+1.9 °C-0.4 °C+0.8 °C+0.6 °C+2.4 °C+0.8 °C+1.4 °C
18/05/2019 18Z-0.5 °C+0 °C-0.7 °C-1.2 °C-0.6 °C+-0 °C+0.1 °C
18/05/2019 12Z-2.1 °C-3.4 °C-3.4 °C-1.9 °C-1.3 °C-3.4 °C-2.3 °C
18/05/2019 06Z+3.2 °C+0.8 °C+2.5 °C+2.8 °C+3.7 °C+2.3 °C+2.6 °C
18/05/2019 00Z-1.2 °C-2.3 °C-1.6 °C-0.8 °C-0.7 °C-1.8 °C-1.6 °C
17/05/2019 18Z-0.2 °C-2.5 °C-2.7 °C-0.9 °C+0.6 °C-1.6 °C+0.2 °C
17/05/2019 12Z+0.2 °C-0.3 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.1 °C-0.2 °C
17/05/2019 06Z-1.1 °C-2 °C-1.8 °C-1.1 °C-0.9 °C-1.6 °C-1.4 °C
17/05/2019 00Z-0.6 °C-2.1 °C-1.3 °C+0.6 °C+0 °C-2.4 °C-1.4 °C
16/05/2019 18Z+0.6 °C-0.2 °C+0.6 °C+0.6 °C+0.6 °C+-0 °C+0.3 °C
16/05/2019 12Z+0.3 °C-1.5 °C-0.8 °C+-0 °C+0.7 °C-0.6 °C-0.2 °C
16/05/2019 06Z+2.6 °C+0.5 °C+2.4 °C+2.5 °C+2.5 °C+1.9 °C+1.5 °C
16/05/2019 00Z+2.1 °C+1.1 °C+2.3 °C+0.8 °C+1.9 °C+2.4 °C+2.4 °C
15/05/2019 18Z+2.4 °C+0.5 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C+3.2 °C+1.9 °C+3 °C
15/05/2019 12Z-1.2 °C-2.1 °C-1 °C-0.6 °C-1 °C-1.5 °C-1.5 °C
15/05/2019 06Z+1.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C-0.3 °C+1.9 °C+1 °C+1.9 °C
15/05/2019 00Z-0.9 °C-3.2 °C-2.8 °C-1.5 °C-0.1 °C-2.8 °C-1.2 °C
14/05/2019 18Z+3.3 °C+2.6 °C+2.1 °C+0.8 °C+3.8 °C+3.8 °C+4.6 °C
Moyenne+0.5 °C-0.8 °C-0.3 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+-0 °C+0.6 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/05/2019 00Z+24.5 %+17 %+54.7 %-74.6 %-2.9 %-35.7 %-35.6 %
21/05/2019 18Z+35.1 %-27.1 %+34.2 %+68.7 %-14.7 %+51.9 %+3.6 %
21/05/2019 12Z+19.9 %+69.6 %+8.5 %+11.7 %+9.1 %-26.1 %-4.7 %
21/05/2019 06Z+5.1 %-40.8 %-32 %+0.7 %-9.2 %-34.9 %-36.5 %
21/05/2019 00Z+66.5 %+108 %+188.7 %+80.6 %+71.7 %+0.7 %+30.6 %
20/05/2019 18Z-35 %+41.7 %+29.4 %-79 %-29.6 %-25.5 %-83 %
20/05/2019 12Z-22 %+63.7 %+18.6 %+103.5 %-38.7 %+10.9 %-10.6 %
20/05/2019 06Z+9.4 %+16.2 %+113.3 %+53.8 %+18.4 %+76.1 %+12.1 %
20/05/2019 00Z+72.1 %+13.3 %+128.4 %+0.9 %+40 %+43.9 %+18.2 %
19/05/2019 18Z+37.8 %-42.8 %+113.1 %-41.4 %-35.6 %+104.1 %+16.9 %
19/05/2019 12Z-15.5 %-75.4 %-13.1 %+24.1 %-19.2 %-38.7 %-49.6 %
19/05/2019 06Z-43 %+143 %-32.8 %+41.8 %-39.6 %-36.8 %+13.5 %
19/05/2019 00Z+102.4 %+22.6 %+179.1 %+104.3 %+15.2 %+9.8 %-21.8 %
18/05/2019 18Z-9.3 %-84.3 %+19.1 %-38.4 %-17.6 %-17.2 %-48.4 %
18/05/2019 12Z+118.9 %-19.9 %+107.7 %+65.8 %+70.3 %+48.1 %+38.6 %
18/05/2019 06Z+76.6 %-92.1 %-17.1 %+87.2 %+29.5 %-13.8 %-12.1 %
18/05/2019 00Z-25.6 %+0.3 %+2.3 %+11.4 %-21.3 %+4.8 %-31.9 %
17/05/2019 18Z+55 %+43.1 %+34.8 %-11.5 %-4.7 %+77.5 %+32.8 %
17/05/2019 12Z-48.2 %-80.5 %-2.3 %-88.8 %-65.2 %-43.6 %-68.2 %
17/05/2019 06Z+38.8 %-36.1 %+57.4 %+7.6 %-11.9 %+20.5 %+25.5 %
17/05/2019 00Z-33.4 %-68.8 %-58.8 %-70.5 %-30.7 %-26 %+27.9 %
16/05/2019 18Z-28.2 %+20.9 %+32.8 %-80.4 %-32.4 %-6.8 %-32.2 %
16/05/2019 12Z-5.8 %-80 %+180 %+50.9 %-37.3 %+5.1 %-36.6 %
16/05/2019 06Z+73.6 %-84.6 %-15.1 %-71.6 %+10.5 %+27.7 %-53.3 %
16/05/2019 00Z+140.4 %-66.8 %+120.5 %+65.4 %+45.2 %+1.9 %-26.8 %
15/05/2019 18Z+114.4 %-94.8 %+69.5 %+31.3 %+72 %-28.3 %-22.2 %
15/05/2019 12Z-11 %+64.5 %-1.6 %+5.1 %-23.5 %+43.6 %-1.4 %
15/05/2019 06Z+35.3 %+1.7 %+85.2 %-5.7 %+9.6 %+27 %+21 %
15/05/2019 00Z+77.2 %-1.8 %+154.8 %+13.1 %+43.3 %+10.8 %+39.5 %
14/05/2019 18Z+129.8 %-75.8 %+104.6 %-17.6 %+51.1 %-5.7 %-13.3 %
Moyenne+31.9 %-11.5 %+55.5 %+8.3 %+1.7 %+7.5 %-10.3 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
22/05/2019 00Z+2.8 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.8 hPa+3.4 hPa+2.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+2 hPa
21/05/2019 18Z-0.1 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.8 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa
21/05/2019 12Z-0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.3 hPa
21/05/2019 06Z+2.2 hPa+1.5 hPa+0.8 hPa+2 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.9 hPa
21/05/2019 00Z-2.7 hPa-1 hPa-2.8 hPa-3.5 hPa-2.8 hPa-1.8 hPa-2.1 hPa
20/05/2019 18Z+2 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.8 hPa+2.7 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.8 hPa
20/05/2019 12Z+1 hPa-1 hPa-1.7 hPa+0.6 hPa+2.2 hPa-1.1 hPa+0.3 hPa
20/05/2019 06Z-2.8 hPa-1.8 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.3 hPa-2.7 hPa-2.9 hPa
20/05/2019 00Z-0.3 hPa+1.6 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.5 hPa
19/05/2019 18Z+0.1 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.7 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.3 hPa
19/05/2019 12Z+1.7 hPa+2.3 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+2 hPa+2.1 hPa
19/05/2019 06Z+0.7 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.9 hPa+0.8 hPa
19/05/2019 00Z-2.5 hPa+-0 hPa-2.8 hPa-5 hPa-2.4 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.1 hPa
18/05/2019 18Z+1.8 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.1 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.7 hPa
18/05/2019 12Z-3.4 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.3 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.6 hPa-1.6 hPa-3 hPa
18/05/2019 06Z-0.6 hPa+1.4 hPa-1.9 hPa-3 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.7 hPa
18/05/2019 00Z+1 hPa+0.1 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.3 hPa+1 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.8 hPa
17/05/2019 18Z-1.8 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.8 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.4 hPa
17/05/2019 12Z+3.3 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+3.2 hPa
17/05/2019 06Z+1.4 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.2 hPa+2.5 hPa+2 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa
17/05/2019 00Z+2.4 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.9 hPa+3.6 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.1 hPa
16/05/2019 18Z+2.1 hPa+0 hPa-0.2 hPa+3 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.2 hPa
16/05/2019 12Z-1.4 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.2 hPa-2 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.3 hPa
16/05/2019 06Z+1.8 hPa+2.9 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa+2 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.7 hPa
16/05/2019 00Z-1.8 hPa+0.5 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.5 hPa
15/05/2019 18Z-1.6 hPa+0.1 hPa-2 hPa-3.2 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.7 hPa
15/05/2019 12Z+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.2 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.5 hPa
15/05/2019 06Z-0.7 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.3 hPa
15/05/2019 00Z-1.2 hPa-1.1 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.5 hPa
14/05/2019 18Z+1 hPa+2 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.4 hPa
Moyenne+0.2 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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