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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Décembre 2018

Décembre 2018 - Janvier 2019 - Février 2019 - Mars 2019 - Avril 2019 - Mai 2019


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/11/2018 06Z+3.8 °C+3.2 °C+3.8 °C+2.8 °C+4.3 °C+3.5 °C+4.7 °C
20/11/2018 00Z+0.5 °C+1.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.2 °C+1.2 °C+0.6 °C+1.4 °C
19/11/2018 18Z+0.4 °C+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.9 °C
19/11/2018 12Z-0.5 °C+0.9 °C+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+0.5 °C-0.8 °C+0.9 °C
19/11/2018 06Z+1.7 °C+2.2 °C+2 °C+1.4 °C+2.5 °C+1.3 °C+2 °C
19/11/2018 00Z+2.6 °C+1.2 °C+2.6 °C+2.2 °C+3 °C+0.5 °C+2.1 °C
18/11/2018 18Z+2.1 °C+1 °C+1.6 °C+1.6 °C+2.4 °C+0.5 °C+1.5 °C
18/11/2018 12Z+0.2 °C-0.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C-1.6 °C-0.3 °C
18/11/2018 06Z+1.3 °C+1.6 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+2.5 °C+0.7 °C+2 °C
18/11/2018 00Z+1.1 °C+0.5 °C+2 °C+1.2 °C+1.6 °C-0.8 °C+0.7 °C
17/11/2018 18Z-3 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C-1.9 °C-3 °C-2.5 °C-3.6 °C
17/11/2018 12Z+2.7 °C+1.8 °C+2.7 °C+2.7 °C+3.1 °C+1.6 °C+2.2 °C
17/11/2018 06Z+2.2 °C+2.5 °C+2.4 °C+1.4 °C+2.8 °C+1.9 °C+3.3 °C
17/11/2018 00Z+1.7 °C+1 °C+1.8 °C+1.5 °C+1.9 °C+0.9 °C+1.3 °C
16/11/2018 18Z+1 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C+2.1 °C-0.3 °C+1.3 °C
16/11/2018 12Z+1.5 °C+0.9 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C+2.3 °C+0.1 °C+1.6 °C
16/11/2018 06Z+2.7 °C+1.8 °C+2 °C+1.8 °C+3.3 °C+1.5 °C+3 °C
16/11/2018 00Z+1.9 °C+1.2 °C+1.8 °C+2 °C+2.9 °C+0.7 °C+2 °C
15/11/2018 18Z-2.1 °C-2.6 °C-1.4 °C-0.3 °C-0.8 °C-4.1 °C-3.7 °C
15/11/2018 12Z-2.7 °C-0.8 °C-0.4 °C-1.3 °C-3.3 °C-2.6 °C-2.6 °C
15/11/2018 06Z+4.3 °C+3.6 °C+4.4 °C+3.1 °C+4.8 °C+4.3 °C+4.7 °C
15/11/2018 00Z+1.2 °C+0.3 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+1.8 °C-0.6 °C+0.8 °C
14/11/2018 18Z+2 °C+2.2 °C+3.1 °C+1.1 °C+1.6 °C+1.9 °C+2.3 °C
14/11/2018 12Z-1.1 °C-0.5 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C-0.7 °C-1.6 °C-0.7 °C
14/11/2018 06Z+1.8 °C+1.7 °C+2.5 °C+1.5 °C+2.3 °C+1.5 °C+1.1 °C
14/11/2018 00Z-0.3 °C+0.1 °C+1.3 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C-1.1 °C-0.6 °C
13/11/2018 18Z+1.1 °C-0.3 °C+1.2 °C+1 °C+1.8 °C-1.7 °C-0.2 °C
13/11/2018 12Z+1.3 °C+2.8 °C+2.8 °C+0.9 °C+1.5 °C+2.6 °C+2.3 °C
13/11/2018 06Z+3.4 °C+1.8 °C+2.7 °C+2.8 °C+4 °C+1.2 °C+3.4 °C
13/11/2018 00Z+0.5 °C+1.5 °C+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+1.7 °C+0.1 °C+1.4 °C
Moyenne+1.1 °C+1.1 °C+1.5 °C+1.1 °C+1.7 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/11/2018 06Z+2.2 °C+1.2 °C+2.1 °C+0.8 °C+2.2 °C+2.4 °C+3.2 °C
20/11/2018 00Z-1.5 °C-0.3 °C-1.7 °C-2.6 °C-1.5 °C-0.2 °C-0.2 °C
19/11/2018 18Z+1.4 °C+1.4 °C+1.9 °C+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+1.7 °C+1.5 °C
19/11/2018 12Z+1.8 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+2.2 °C+1.4 °C+1.6 °C
19/11/2018 06Z+1.7 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C+1.3 °C+1.7 °C+1.3 °C+1.5 °C
19/11/2018 00Z+0.8 °C+0.4 °C+1.1 °C+1.9 °C+0.7 °C+0.1 °C-0.3 °C
18/11/2018 18Z-0.1 °C-0.5 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C-0.3 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C
18/11/2018 12Z-1.8 °C-2.6 °C-2 °C-2.2 °C-1.5 °C-2.4 °C-2 °C
18/11/2018 06Z+0.4 °C-0.1 °C+0.1 °C-0.7 °C+0.4 °C+0.8 °C+1.1 °C
18/11/2018 00Z-0.8 °C-1.8 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C-0.7 °C-0.7 °C-0.4 °C
17/11/2018 18Z-2.9 °C-2.3 °C-0.3 °C-1.4 °C-3.5 °C-2.7 °C-4.2 °C
17/11/2018 12Z+1.9 °C+0.5 °C+1.4 °C+1.6 °C+1.9 °C+1.1 °C+1.9 °C
17/11/2018 06Z+0.8 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C-0.6 °C+0.3 °C+2.1 °C+2.1 °C
17/11/2018 00Z+0.3 °C-1 °C+0.5 °C+0.2 °C+0.2 °C-0.2 °C+0.4 °C
16/11/2018 18Z-0.7 °C-1.7 °C-0.9 °C-1.3 °C-0.8 °C-1 °C-0.7 °C
16/11/2018 12Z-0.6 °C-0.6 °C-0.1 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C-0.7 °C-0.3 °C
16/11/2018 06Z+0.6 °C+0.2 °C-0.4 °C-0.7 °C+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+1.7 °C
16/11/2018 00Z+0.3 °C-0.1 °C+1 °C-0.4 °C+0 °C+0.9 °C+0.5 °C
15/11/2018 18Z-2.2 °C-3.7 °C-1.7 °C-0.7 °C-2 °C-3.4 °C-3.6 °C
15/11/2018 12Z-3.3 °C-3.2 °C-1.9 °C-2.3 °C-3.9 °C-3 °C-3 °C
15/11/2018 06Z+3.2 °C+1.4 °C+3.4 °C+1.8 °C+3.1 °C+2.6 °C+3.8 °C
15/11/2018 00Z-0.8 °C-1.6 °C-1.3 °C-1.5 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-0.5 °C
14/11/2018 18Z+1.2 °C+0.2 °C+1.1 °C+-0 °C+1.1 °C+1.5 °C+1.9 °C
14/11/2018 12Z-2.2 °C-2.1 °C-1.8 °C-1.8 °C-2.1 °C-2.5 °C-1.8 °C
14/11/2018 06Z+2.4 °C-0.9 °C+1.5 °C+1.1 °C+2.9 °C+1.2 °C+3.3 °C
14/11/2018 00Z+-0 °C-2.4 °C-0.3 °C-0.6 °C+0.3 °C-0.7 °C-0.3 °C
13/11/2018 18Z-1.3 °C-2.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-1.6 °C-1.7 °C
13/11/2018 12Z+0.8 °C+1.8 °C+2.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.5 °C+2.2 °C+1.8 °C
13/11/2018 06Z+1.4 °C+0.9 °C+1.2 °C+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+1.2 °C+1.4 °C
13/11/2018 00Z+2.2 °C+0.6 °C+1.7 °C+2 °C+2 °C+1.9 °C+2 °C
Moyenne+0.2 °C-0.6 °C+0.3 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/11/2018 06Z+51.8 %+16.1 %+13.2 %+110.2 %+21.6 %+20.6 %-32.3 %
20/11/2018 00Z-41.3 %+78.1 %-46.4 %-19.6 %-30.2 %+6.3 %-30.9 %
19/11/2018 18Z-34.8 %-91.6 %-62.8 %-57.2 %-61.7 %-40.9 %-36 %
19/11/2018 12Z-66.6 %-76.3 %-82.5 %-40.4 %-58.7 %-81.1 %-82.5 %
19/11/2018 06Z+21.2 %+41.8 %+15.7 %+57.7 %+13.6 %+14.6 %-33.9 %
19/11/2018 00Z+0.9 %-75.9 %-30.2 %-42.7 %-7.5 %+27 %+45.8 %
18/11/2018 18Z+28.1 %-20.1 %+23.5 %-0.9 %+3.2 %+51.2 %+35.8 %
18/11/2018 12Z+29.4 %+64.8 %+36.2 %+20.4 %+3.7 %+94.6 %+23.8 %
18/11/2018 06Z+9.4 %+32.1 %+6 %+2.5 %-3 %+23.9 %-49.2 %
18/11/2018 00Z-2.8 %+1.5 %+62.3 %+21.3 %-38.6 %+24.9 %-38.2 %
17/11/2018 18Z-43.9 %-33.7 %-38.3 %-38.2 %-62.4 %-4.9 %-11.2 %
17/11/2018 12Z-22.2 %+125.7 %+26.4 %-29.7 %-18.2 %+19.2 %-47 %
17/11/2018 06Z+54.4 %-9.2 %+63.9 %+93.8 %+96.2 %+34.3 %-30 %
17/11/2018 00Z+4.5 %+48.1 %-0.1 %+38.2 %+3.8 %+39.6 %-29.1 %
16/11/2018 18Z+0.8 %-52.6 %-42.2 %-9.9 %+12.4 %-35.4 %-39.4 %
16/11/2018 12Z-22.9 %-12.9 %+14 %+22.8 %-33.9 %+31.1 %-4.1 %
16/11/2018 06Z+72.1 %+37.7 %+18.3 %+36.7 %+59.9 %+25 %-9.3 %
16/11/2018 00Z+25.9 %-64.7 %-18.4 %-1.7 %+8.2 %-19.3 %-23.5 %
15/11/2018 18Z-44.4 %-74.2 %-66.7 %-81.8 %-32.4 %-53.4 %-23.5 %
15/11/2018 12Z+78.4 %+64.1 %-33.9 %+46.9 %-0.5 %+30 %+22.9 %
15/11/2018 06Z-12.7 %+20.4 %-24.6 %+69.6 %+4.3 %-25.2 %-52.6 %
15/11/2018 00Z+45 %-9 %+60 %+53.3 %+21.3 %+61.1 %-2.6 %
14/11/2018 18Z-31.7 %+26.7 %-31.3 %-19.9 %-8.7 %+20.3 %-25.8 %
14/11/2018 12Z-8.3 %+21 %+37.8 %+15 %-32.7 %+32.8 %-30.8 %
14/11/2018 06Z+8.3 %+86.6 %-44.7 %-26.2 %-17.9 %-49.7 %-77.6 %
14/11/2018 00Z-8.7 %-47.3 %-18.6 %-21.9 %-0.9 %+17.2 %-35.3 %
13/11/2018 18Z-20.7 %-58.8 %-16.3 %-14.9 %-24.1 %+4.5 %-8.4 %
13/11/2018 12Z+29.1 %+182.3 %+20.1 %+0.7 %-8.6 %+90.3 %+4.9 %
13/11/2018 06Z+62.6 %-80.9 %-8.7 %+16.9 %+99.9 %+34.2 %+22.3 %
13/11/2018 00Z-53.5 %-9.6 %-86.6 %-60.9 %-45.5 %-9.1 %-49.2 %
Moyenne+3.6 %+4.3 %-8.5 %+4.7 %-4.6 %+12.8 %-21.6 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/11/2018 06Z-5.5 hPa+-0 hPa-4.4 hPa-9.1 hPa-5.8 hPa-2.5 hPa-3.2 hPa
20/11/2018 00Z-0.9 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.7 hPa-1 hPa
19/11/2018 18Z+4.3 hPa+4.6 hPa+4 hPa+4.1 hPa+4 hPa+4.3 hPa+4 hPa
19/11/2018 12Z+6.1 hPa+4.6 hPa+4.3 hPa+5.1 hPa+6.9 hPa+4.8 hPa+5.7 hPa
19/11/2018 06Z-4.4 hPa-3.5 hPa-5.4 hPa-6.5 hPa-3.1 hPa-4.2 hPa-3.3 hPa
19/11/2018 00Z+2.9 hPa+3 hPa+4.6 hPa+4.6 hPa+2 hPa+3.5 hPa+1.6 hPa
18/11/2018 18Z-2.3 hPa-1.3 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.8 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.4 hPa
18/11/2018 12Z-7.5 hPa-5.2 hPa-6.1 hPa-7.5 hPa-7.1 hPa-6 hPa-7 hPa
18/11/2018 06Z-1.2 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.4 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.3 hPa
18/11/2018 00Z-7.1 hPa-4.3 hPa-6 hPa-8.1 hPa-6.8 hPa-5.3 hPa-5.7 hPa
17/11/2018 18Z+0.2 hPa-3.1 hPa-3.8 hPa-0.1 hPa+2.4 hPa-2.5 hPa-0.6 hPa
17/11/2018 12Z+2.8 hPa+5.6 hPa+4.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.1 hPa+4.9 hPa+4.2 hPa
17/11/2018 06Z-9.2 hPa-3.5 hPa-7.1 hPa-11.6 hPa-10 hPa-5.8 hPa-6.7 hPa
17/11/2018 00Z-3.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-3.3 hPa-5.8 hPa-2.9 hPa-1.8 hPa-2.1 hPa
16/11/2018 18Z+4 hPa+5.5 hPa+5.5 hPa+3.8 hPa+3 hPa+5.3 hPa+4.4 hPa
16/11/2018 12Z-3.5 hPa-2.9 hPa-2.5 hPa-4 hPa-3.3 hPa-3 hPa-3.5 hPa
16/11/2018 06Z-2.5 hPa+0 hPa+0 hPa-2.4 hPa-3.3 hPa-0.8 hPa-1.8 hPa
16/11/2018 00Z+0 hPa+3.7 hPa+2.1 hPa-0.5 hPa-1.2 hPa+2.5 hPa+0.7 hPa
15/11/2018 18Z+7.9 hPa+5.6 hPa+6.7 hPa+9.6 hPa+8.3 hPa+7 hPa+6.7 hPa
15/11/2018 12Z-4.4 hPa-3.9 hPa-5.5 hPa-5.5 hPa-2.7 hPa-4.1 hPa-3.3 hPa
15/11/2018 06Z-7 hPa-1.6 hPa-7.1 hPa-11.5 hPa-7 hPa-3.9 hPa-4.1 hPa
15/11/2018 00Z-4.2 hPa-3.2 hPa-2.8 hPa-5.1 hPa-4.5 hPa-3.2 hPa-3.3 hPa
14/11/2018 18Z-2.4 hPa-0.5 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.7 hPa-0.4 hPa-1.9 hPa-1.2 hPa
14/11/2018 12Z-5.5 hPa-6.8 hPa-6.5 hPa-5.9 hPa-4.1 hPa-6.2 hPa-5.3 hPa
14/11/2018 06Z+2.9 hPa+5.6 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.1 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.7 hPa+5.3 hPa
14/11/2018 00Z-3.8 hPa-2.2 hPa-5.2 hPa-4.5 hPa-2.8 hPa-3.2 hPa-2.9 hPa
13/11/2018 18Z+0.3 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.4 hPa
13/11/2018 12Z-9.3 hPa-6.7 hPa-10.8 hPa-12.6 hPa-8.5 hPa-8.5 hPa-7.8 hPa
13/11/2018 06Z+1.1 hPa+3.9 hPa+5 hPa+2.6 hPa-0.6 hPa+3.5 hPa+0.7 hPa
13/11/2018 00Z+5.8 hPa+5.7 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.2 hPa+6.2 hPa+5.2 hPa+5.7 hPa
Moyenne-1.5 hPa+-0 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.6 hPa-1.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.9 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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