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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Février 2020

Février 2020 - Mars 2020 - Avril 2020 - Mai 2020 - Juin 2020 - Juillet 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2020 18Z-2.5 °C-1.3 °C-2.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.3 °C-3.6 °C-2.2 °C
16/01/2020 12Z+1.1 °C+1.2 °C+1.8 °C+1.6 °C+1.8 °C+0.5 °C+2.3 °C
16/01/2020 06Z-1.5 °C-1 °C+0.1 °C-0.1 °C-0.6 °C-2.4 °C-1 °C
16/01/2020 00Z+3.9 °C+3.3 °C+3.4 °C+2.6 °C+4.4 °C+3.1 °C+4.7 °C
15/01/2020 18Z+2.5 °C+1.8 °C+2.8 °C+1.9 °C+3.2 °C+1.5 °C+4 °C
15/01/2020 12Z+0.2 °C+0.2 °C-0.4 °C+0.7 °C+1 °C-1.4 °C+0.3 °C
15/01/2020 06Z-2.8 °C-1.1 °C-1.7 °C-1.6 °C-2.1 °C-3.3 °C-1.6 °C
15/01/2020 00Z+2.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.1 °C+1.6 °C+2.6 °C+1.5 °C+3.5 °C
14/01/2020 18Z+1.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+1 °C+1.5 °C-0.6 °C+1.9 °C
14/01/2020 12Z+0.5 °C-0.7 °C-0.3 °C+1 °C+1.3 °C-2.2 °C-0.2 °C
14/01/2020 06Z+2.8 °C+1.1 °C+2.7 °C+1.7 °C+3.2 °C+1.7 °C+2.4 °C
14/01/2020 00Z+1.3 °C+1.5 °C+2.9 °C+1.4 °C+1.3 °C+1.5 °C+2.3 °C
13/01/2020 18Z+1.4 °C+1.5 °C+1.8 °C+1.2 °C+1.6 °C+0.6 °C+2 °C
13/01/2020 12Z+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C-0.3 °C+1.9 °C
13/01/2020 06Z-1.2 °C-1.4 °C-0.6 °C-0.5 °C-0.6 °C-3.3 °C-1.3 °C
13/01/2020 00Z+1.5 °C+1.3 °C+2.1 °C+1.6 °C+1.9 °C+0.9 °C+2.1 °C
12/01/2020 18Z+2 °C+1.7 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+2.6 °C+1.3 °C+3.7 °C
12/01/2020 12Z+3.1 °C+2 °C+2.3 °C+2.1 °C+3.6 °C+1.8 °C+4 °C
12/01/2020 06Z+1.5 °C+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+1 °C+2 °C+0.7 °C+2.4 °C
12/01/2020 00Z-0.7 °C-0.8 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C+0.1 °C-2.2 °C-0.6 °C
11/01/2020 18Z+3 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+2.5 °C+4 °C+1.6 °C+3.5 °C
11/01/2020 12Z+1.2 °C+1.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.2 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+3 °C
11/01/2020 06Z+0.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.2 °C+0.3 °C+1.3 °C-1.2 °C+0.1 °C
11/01/2020 00Z+3 °C+2.7 °C+2.6 °C+2.8 °C+3.9 °C+2.2 °C+4.4 °C
10/01/2020 18Z+2.7 °C+1.5 °C+2 °C+1.9 °C+3.3 °C+0.6 °C+3.3 °C
10/01/2020 12Z+0.9 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.7 °C+1.8 °C-1 °C+1.4 °C
10/01/2020 06Z+2.3 °C+1.9 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+3.1 °C+1.6 °C+3.9 °C
10/01/2020 00Z-0.8 °C-1.4 °C-2.1 °C-0.2 °C+0.6 °C-3.8 °C+0.1 °C
09/01/2020 18Z+2.3 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+3 °C+0.5 °C+3.6 °C
09/01/2020 12Z+2.6 °C+2 °C+2.2 °C+1.9 °C+3.3 °C+1.3 °C+3.2 °C
Moyenne+1.2 °C+0.8 °C+1.1 °C+1.1 °C+1.8 °C-0.1 °C+1.9 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2020 18Z-0.7 °C-3.8 °C-1.4 °C-0.2 °C-0.6 °C-2.6 °C-2.6 °C
16/01/2020 12Z+1.9 °C+0.6 °C+1.7 °C+1.9 °C+1.8 °C+1.8 °C+2.3 °C
16/01/2020 06Z-0.2 °C-2.5 °C-0.9 °C-0.6 °C+0.7 °C-1.1 °C-0.1 °C
16/01/2020 00Z+3.2 °C+4.8 °C+4.5 °C+2.4 °C+2.6 °C+4.4 °C+3.5 °C
15/01/2020 18Z+2.2 °C+1.5 °C+2 °C+1.2 °C+2.3 °C+2.1 °C+3 °C
15/01/2020 12Z-1.5 °C-1 °C-1.2 °C-0.7 °C-1.6 °C-1.2 °C-1.6 °C
15/01/2020 06Z-2.7 °C-3.1 °C-2.1 °C-2.4 °C-3.1 °C-2.8 °C-3.3 °C
15/01/2020 00Z+0.6 °C+0.6 °C+0.3 °C-0.4 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+1.6 °C
14/01/2020 18Z+0.9 °C-0.9 °C+0 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C-0.1 °C+0.9 °C
14/01/2020 12Z-0.7 °C-1.8 °C-1.3 °C-0.3 °C-0.6 °C-2.3 °C-1.6 °C
14/01/2020 06Z+1.7 °C-1.9 °C+0.7 °C+0.6 °C+2.6 °C+0.4 °C+1.6 °C
14/01/2020 00Z+1 °C+0.4 °C+1.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C
13/01/2020 18Z+0.1 °C+0.8 °C+0.5 °C-0.7 °C+0.2 °C+0.8 °C+0.7 °C
13/01/2020 12Z+0.5 °C-0.7 °C+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.4 °C+0.1 °C+0.5 °C
13/01/2020 06Z-1.1 °C-3.7 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C-2.6 °C-2 °C
13/01/2020 00Z+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+1.6 °C+0.2 °C+1.1 °C+1 °C+0.7 °C
12/01/2020 18Z+0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C-0.7 °C+0.8 °C+1.4 °C+2.2 °C
12/01/2020 12Z+1.2 °C+0.9 °C+1 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C+2.1 °C
12/01/2020 06Z-0.1 °C+0.9 °C-0.4 °C-1.3 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+1 °C
12/01/2020 00Z+1.5 °C-1.9 °C+1.4 °C+2.6 °C+2.1 °C-0.5 °C+0.2 °C
11/01/2020 18Z+2.8 °C+1.6 °C+3.3 °C+3.3 °C+3.1 °C+1.9 °C+2.4 °C
11/01/2020 12Z-0.2 °C+0.9 °C-0.9 °C-1.3 °C-0.2 °C+0.7 °C+1.3 °C
11/01/2020 06Z+0.8 °C-1.4 °C+0.5 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C-0.6 °C-0.3 °C
11/01/2020 00Z+4.3 °C+2.8 °C+3.7 °C+3 °C+4.4 °C+4 °C+5 °C
10/01/2020 18Z+0.9 °C+0.7 °C+0.3 °C+-0 °C+0.9 °C+0.9 °C+1.4 °C
10/01/2020 12Z-1 °C+-0 °C-0.8 °C-0.5 °C-0.8 °C-1 °C-1.2 °C
10/01/2020 06Z+2.5 °C+1.8 °C+2.3 °C+1.4 °C+2.5 °C+2.5 °C+3.4 °C
10/01/2020 00Z-2.9 °C-3.3 °C-3.5 °C-3.1 °C-2.2 °C-3.2 °C-1.8 °C
09/01/2020 18Z+1.1 °C+1.1 °C+1.2 °C+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+1.1 °C+1.5 °C
09/01/2020 12Z+1.6 °C+2.1 °C+2 °C+1.7 °C+1.8 °C+1.5 °C+1.4 °C
Moyenne+0.7 °C-0.1 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.4 °C+0.8 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2020 18Z-77.7 %-91.4 %-94.8 %-92.2 %-73.3 %-93.8 %-88.6 %
16/01/2020 12Z-47.6 %-18.8 %-38.2 %-38.4 %-51.3 %-5 %-47.6 %
16/01/2020 06Z-68 %-98.6 %-83.2 %-73.4 %-44.6 %-85.4 %-69.7 %
16/01/2020 00Z-0.2 %-70.7 %+0.6 %-13.3 %+17.9 %-14.7 %+2.8 %
15/01/2020 18Z-14 %+56.8 %-39.2 %-17.6 %-35 %+12.2 %-36.5 %
15/01/2020 12Z+20.8 %-96 %-36.6 %-35.2 %+24.1 %-27.7 %-20.5 %
15/01/2020 06Z-42.4 %-58.9 %-39 %-32.2 %-49 %-34.2 %-30.7 %
15/01/2020 00Z+32.7 %-27.9 %-32.5 %-5.4 %+80.7 %-6.9 %-21.5 %
14/01/2020 18Z-17 %-49.2 %-5.8 %-10.3 %-2.1 %-1.9 %-34.5 %
14/01/2020 12Z+47.5 %-61.4 %-21.5 %-17.2 %+37.9 %-7.9 %+20.6 %
14/01/2020 06Z-19.9 %+20.7 %-9.2 %+14.5 %-22.5 %-10.5 %-84.1 %
14/01/2020 00Z+25.7 %-19.4 %-8.6 %+42.8 %+12.7 %+13.3 %-17.2 %
13/01/2020 18Z+93.1 %-23.1 %+164.6 %+130.2 %+65 %+123.3 %+48.9 %
13/01/2020 12Z-4 %-19.4 %+33.2 %-7.3 %+15.2 %+0.4 %-45.5 %
13/01/2020 06Z-1 %-26.7 %+1.5 %-29.7 %-9.7 %+34.5 %-48.6 %
13/01/2020 00Z+15.3 %+8.8 %+31.5 %-13.2 %+17 %+65.4 %+6.2 %
12/01/2020 18Z+45.1 %-11 %+91.5 %+98.8 %+80.8 %+67.4 %-8.2 %
12/01/2020 12Z+14.5 %-59.3 %+14.2 %-10.4 %+23.8 %+54.6 %+34.6 %
12/01/2020 06Z+108.7 %+41.6 %+126.2 %+114.7 %+73.9 %+107.6 %+30.2 %
12/01/2020 00Z-63.7 %-76.9 %-57.6 %-69.1 %-56.2 %-39.7 %-57.1 %
11/01/2020 18Z-30.4 %-89.7 %-64 %-61.2 %-34.5 %-18 %-3.9 %
11/01/2020 12Z+107.7 %+99.9 %-31.9 %+23.7 %+83.2 %+54.9 %+47.6 %
11/01/2020 06Z-55.2 %-73.6 %-48.4 %-45.3 %-53.2 %-55.4 %-70.9 %
11/01/2020 00Z-78.2 %-3.4 %-91.3 %-83.4 %-67.5 %-57.8 %-67.6 %
10/01/2020 18Z+107.5 %-12.8 %+66.9 %+39.7 %+102 %+82.9 %+23.1 %
10/01/2020 12Z+22.4 %-76.8 %+5.4 %-51.4 %+23.2 %+60.7 %+54.1 %
10/01/2020 06Z-21.7 %+39.5 %-3.9 %+19.3 %+4.6 %-2.1 %-58.9 %
10/01/2020 00Z-17.7 %+128.6 %-7.2 %-26.9 %-25.4 %+73 %-52.9 %
09/01/2020 18Z-4.4 %+44.9 %+52.1 %+0.1 %-1.2 %+76.2 %-6.6 %
09/01/2020 12Z+1.3 %-96.9 %-53.6 %-37.2 %+15.9 %-16.9 %+0.4 %
Moyenne+2.6 %-24 %-6 %-9.6 %+5.1 %+11.6 %-20.1 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2020 18Z+13.5 hPa+8.2 hPa+7.8 hPa+13 hPa+15.6 hPa+9.5 hPa+13.1 hPa
16/01/2020 12Z+5 hPa+4.6 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.3 hPa+5.9 hPa+4.2 hPa+5.1 hPa
16/01/2020 06Z+6.4 hPa+6.2 hPa+3.8 hPa+5.8 hPa+6.7 hPa+6.1 hPa+6.7 hPa
16/01/2020 00Z+1.2 hPa+3.1 hPa+2.2 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa+2.8 hPa+1.5 hPa
15/01/2020 18Z-3.7 hPa-2.1 hPa-5.5 hPa-6.1 hPa-2.9 hPa-3 hPa-2.6 hPa
15/01/2020 12Z+3.1 hPa+2.7 hPa+4.3 hPa+4.1 hPa+2.1 hPa+3.3 hPa+2.7 hPa
15/01/2020 06Z+0.2 hPa-2.6 hPa-2.1 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.7 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.8 hPa
15/01/2020 00Z+2.8 hPa+5.5 hPa+4.7 hPa+2.5 hPa+1.6 hPa+4.7 hPa+3.3 hPa
14/01/2020 18Z+1.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.1 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.5 hPa
14/01/2020 12Z+2.5 hPa+2.2 hPa+4.4 hPa+4.3 hPa+1.3 hPa+3.4 hPa+1.8 hPa
14/01/2020 06Z+0.3 hPa+5.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-2.6 hPa+0.8 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.6 hPa
14/01/2020 00Z-3.5 hPa-0.9 hPa-4.6 hPa-7 hPa-2.9 hPa-2.2 hPa-1.6 hPa
13/01/2020 18Z-14.2 hPa-9.5 hPa-12.2 hPa-17.6 hPa-14.3 hPa-11.1 hPa-11.9 hPa
13/01/2020 12Z-0.5 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.1 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.1 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.3 hPa
13/01/2020 06Z-0.2 hPa-0.8 hPa-1.6 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.2 hPa
13/01/2020 00Z+1.6 hPa+5.1 hPa+3.1 hPa+1 hPa+0.7 hPa+3.7 hPa+2.8 hPa
12/01/2020 18Z-6.8 hPa-1.5 hPa-4.3 hPa-9.3 hPa-8.1 hPa-3.3 hPa-4.6 hPa
12/01/2020 12Z+3.5 hPa+6 hPa+5.5 hPa+3 hPa+2.2 hPa+5.5 hPa+3.9 hPa
12/01/2020 06Z-8 hPa-4.5 hPa-6.1 hPa-10.2 hPa-8.7 hPa-5.5 hPa-6.1 hPa
12/01/2020 00Z+7.4 hPa+6.2 hPa+4.4 hPa+5.8 hPa+8.4 hPa+6.4 hPa+7.9 hPa
11/01/2020 18Z+6.2 hPa+7 hPa+6.7 hPa+6.5 hPa+5.1 hPa+6.9 hPa+5.8 hPa
11/01/2020 12Z-1.2 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.2 hPa-1 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.9 hPa
11/01/2020 06Z+12.8 hPa+10.4 hPa+10.5 hPa+13.3 hPa+13.4 hPa+11 hPa+12.6 hPa
11/01/2020 00Z+11.2 hPa+11.7 hPa+9.4 hPa+9.3 hPa+11.2 hPa+11.2 hPa+11.6 hPa
10/01/2020 18Z-0.7 hPa+2.6 hPa+3.5 hPa+0.4 hPa-3 hPa+2.3 hPa-0.4 hPa
10/01/2020 12Z+6.4 hPa+5.2 hPa+8.6 hPa+9.4 hPa+5 hPa+6.5 hPa+4.8 hPa
10/01/2020 06Z+0.8 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.6 hPa
10/01/2020 00Z-2.5 hPa-4 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.3 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.1 hPa
09/01/2020 18Z+0.1 hPa+1.8 hPa+2.1 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.4 hPa+1.8 hPa+0.1 hPa
09/01/2020 12Z+6.5 hPa+7.7 hPa+8.3 hPa+7 hPa+4.5 hPa+8 hPa+6.2 hPa
Moyenne+1.7 hPa+2.6 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.2 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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