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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Février 2019

Février 2019 - Mars 2019 - Avril 2019 - Mai 2019 - Juin 2019 - Juillet 2019


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2019 12Z-1.7 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-3.1 °C-1.2 °C
16/01/2019 06Z-3.6 °C-2.1 °C-1.8 °C-1.4 °C-3.3 °C-4.9 °C-4.2 °C
16/01/2019 00Z-4.7 °C-3 °C-4.2 °C-2.6 °C-3.5 °C-5.9 °C-3.4 °C
15/01/2019 18Z-1.6 °C-0.5 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C-1.6 °C-2.5 °C-0.3 °C
15/01/2019 12Z+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+0.8 °C+1 °C+1.9 °C+-0 °C+1.3 °C
15/01/2019 06Z+0.3 °C+0 °C+-0 °C+0.6 °C+0.8 °C-1.3 °C+0.9 °C
15/01/2019 00Z-0.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.3 °C+0.3 °C+0.1 °C-2.1 °C-0.4 °C
14/01/2019 18Z+0.7 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C+1.6 °C+1.4 °C+-0 °C+1.3 °C
14/01/2019 12Z+0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.7 °C+0.9 °C+1 °C-0.5 °C+1.4 °C
14/01/2019 06Z+1.4 °C+1 °C+1.7 °C+1.5 °C+2 °C-0.1 °C+1.8 °C
14/01/2019 00Z+1 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C+1.6 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+1.4 °C
13/01/2019 18Z+2.6 °C+2.3 °C+2.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.9 °C+2.2 °C+4.2 °C
13/01/2019 12Z+4.3 °C+3.4 °C+4.8 °C+2.4 °C+3.6 °C+4.6 °C+5.5 °C
13/01/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-1.6 °C-1.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.4 °C-3.7 °C-2.4 °C
13/01/2019 00Z-0.6 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C+0.6 °C-0.1 °C-2.9 °C-1.2 °C
12/01/2019 18Z+2.4 °C+2.3 °C+2 °C+1.9 °C+2.7 °C+2.1 °C+3.1 °C
12/01/2019 12Z-1.7 °C-1.6 °C-1.8 °C-0.7 °C-1.4 °C-3.6 °C-1.7 °C
12/01/2019 06Z-1.4 °C-1.1 °C-0.7 °C+0.2 °C-0.9 °C-3 °C-0.5 °C
12/01/2019 00Z-1.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.9 °C-0.4 °C+0.2 °C-2.9 °C-0.3 °C
11/01/2019 18Z+1.6 °C+1 °C+1.3 °C+1.3 °C+2 °C+0.2 °C+2 °C
11/01/2019 12Z+0.6 °C+0.2 °C+0.7 °C+1 °C+1 °C-1.1 °C+0.4 °C
11/01/2019 06Z+0.5 °C+1.4 °C+1.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.7 °C+0.9 °C+2.3 °C
11/01/2019 00Z-0.6 °C-0.6 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C-0.2 °C-2.5 °C-1 °C
10/01/2019 18Z+3 °C+2.4 °C+3.5 °C+2 °C+3.3 °C+2.3 °C+3.7 °C
10/01/2019 12Z-0.8 °C-1.4 °C+0 °C+0.3 °C-0.9 °C-3.3 °C-1.8 °C
10/01/2019 06Z+1.5 °C+0.4 °C+1.8 °C+1.8 °C+1.8 °C-0.8 °C+1 °C
10/01/2019 00Z-1.8 °C-0.3 °C+0.2 °C-0.7 °C-2.5 °C-1.4 °C-1.6 °C
09/01/2019 18Z-1.3 °C-0.7 °C-1.2 °C-0.8 °C-0.8 °C-2.2 °C-0.2 °C
09/01/2019 12Z-5 °C-2.7 °C-3.4 °C-2.8 °C-4.8 °C-5.8 °C-5.2 °C
09/01/2019 06Z+0.3 °C-0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C-1.1 °C+0.8 °C
Moyenne-0.2 °C-0.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.2 °C-1.4 °C+0.2 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2019 12Z-2.5 °C-1.8 °C-2.6 °C-3 °C-2.8 °C-2.4 °C-2.8 °C
16/01/2019 06Z-3.9 °C-2.1 °C-2.3 °C-4.1 °C-4.2 °C-3.3 °C-3.3 °C
16/01/2019 00Z-6.4 °C-5 °C-6.4 °C-6.1 °C-6.1 °C-5.7 °C-5.2 °C
15/01/2019 18Z-1.2 °C-1.1 °C-2.3 °C-3.2 °C-1.1 °C-1.2 °C-0.7 °C
15/01/2019 12Z+0.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C-0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C+0.8 °C
15/01/2019 06Z-1.9 °C-1.9 °C-2 °C-2 °C-2 °C-1.9 °C-1.7 °C
15/01/2019 00Z-1.7 °C-2.3 °C-2 °C-1.6 °C-1.8 °C-2 °C-2.5 °C
14/01/2019 18Z+0.3 °C-0.3 °C+0.3 °C+-0 °C+0.2 °C-0.1 °C+0.1 °C
14/01/2019 12Z-0.6 °C-0.2 °C-0.3 °C-1 °C-0.7 °C-0.8 °C-0.7 °C
14/01/2019 06Z+0.6 °C-0.7 °C+0.6 °C+0.5 °C+0.9 °C+-0 °C+0.2 °C
14/01/2019 00Z+1.1 °C+0.7 °C+1.6 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C
13/01/2019 18Z+1.9 °C+2.1 °C+1.5 °C+1.1 °C+1.6 °C+2.4 °C+2.7 °C
13/01/2019 12Z+3.3 °C+3 °C+3.7 °C+2.1 °C+2.8 °C+4.2 °C+4.5 °C
13/01/2019 06Z-4.4 °C-2.8 °C-3.4 °C-3.1 °C-4.2 °C-4.1 °C-4.6 °C
13/01/2019 00Z-2.7 °C-2.8 °C-2.7 °C-2.3 °C-2.6 °C-3 °C-2.9 °C
12/01/2019 18Z+1 °C+1.4 °C+0.8 °C-0.1 °C+1.1 °C+1.9 °C+2.6 °C
12/01/2019 12Z-3.4 °C-3.5 °C-4.1 °C-3.3 °C-3.3 °C-3.6 °C-2.9 °C
12/01/2019 06Z-2.8 °C-2.6 °C-2.8 °C-2.2 °C-2.8 °C-2.7 °C-2.3 °C
12/01/2019 00Z-3.2 °C-3 °C-3.6 °C-3.7 °C-2.6 °C-3.3 °C-2.4 °C
11/01/2019 18Z+0.1 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C-1.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.2 °C+1.2 °C
11/01/2019 12Z-1.3 °C-1.6 °C-1.4 °C-1 °C-1.2 °C-1.9 °C-1.7 °C
11/01/2019 06Z-0.8 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C-1.4 °C-1.2 °C+-0 °C+0.7 °C
11/01/2019 00Z-2.5 °C-2.6 °C-2.3 °C-1.8 °C-2.5 °C-3.2 °C-3.1 °C
10/01/2019 18Z+1.9 °C+2.1 °C+2.2 °C+0.4 °C+1.8 °C+2.5 °C+3.5 °C
10/01/2019 12Z-1.6 °C-2.2 °C-1.9 °C-1.2 °C-1.7 °C-2.7 °C-2.6 °C
10/01/2019 06Z+0.6 °C-0.9 °C-0.1 °C+0.2 °C+0.6 °C-0.8 °C-0.3 °C
10/01/2019 00Z-1.7 °C-2.7 °C-1.8 °C-2.5 °C-1.5 °C-1.8 °C-1.4 °C
09/01/2019 18Z-2.6 °C-2.2 °C-2.9 °C-3.7 °C-2.5 °C-2.4 °C-2.1 °C
09/01/2019 12Z-5.3 °C-4.5 °C-4.7 °C-5 °C-5.5 °C-5.1 °C-4.8 °C
09/01/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-2.3 °C-2.1 °C-1.9 °C-1.2 °C-1.9 °C-1.2 °C
Moyenne-1.4 °C-1.4 °C-1.4 °C-1.7 °C-1.4 °C-1.4 °C-1.1 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2019 12Z-10.1 %+90.9 %+104.5 %-17.2 %-5.1 %+48.9 %-51.7 %
16/01/2019 06Z+75.6 %+32.5 %+99.7 %-2.7 %+23.8 %+65.3 %-8 %
16/01/2019 00Z-1.1 %+61.9 %+28.7 %+0.7 %-5.9 %+76.4 %-6 %
15/01/2019 18Z-13.4 %+218.1 %+20.8 %+17.5 %-26.2 %-3.9 %-62.5 %
15/01/2019 12Z-2.3 %+55.3 %+47.2 %-7.4 %-20.9 %+36.8 %-35.4 %
15/01/2019 06Z+83.3 %+9.5 %+49.2 %+86.6 %+111.9 %+84.3 %+11.6 %
15/01/2019 00Z+72.6 %+25 %+159.6 %+14 %+33.3 %+186.5 %+22.6 %
14/01/2019 18Z+59.5 %-20.1 %+89.2 %+80 %+44 %+85.1 %-1.9 %
14/01/2019 12Z+91.4 %-26.3 %-11.1 %+49.1 %+108 %+85.4 %+54.1 %
14/01/2019 06Z+63.3 %-19.4 %+170.6 %+26.5 %+39.5 %+125.8 %+37.2 %
14/01/2019 00Z+12.8 %+27 %-10.6 %+3.2 %-0.5 %+54.9 %+2.7 %
13/01/2019 18Z+43.9 %+4.9 %+64.6 %+2.2 %+40 %+60.7 %+16.9 %
13/01/2019 12Z+52.6 %+88.6 %-5.2 %+37.3 %-9.1 %+37.7 %+15.3 %
13/01/2019 06Z+12.3 %-49.7 %-16.1 %+3.4 %-12.4 %+23.4 %+23.3 %
13/01/2019 00Z+56.1 %-20.9 %+88.3 %+24.5 %+54.9 %+77.7 %+44.2 %
12/01/2019 18Z+66.1 %+212.5 %+105.3 %+112.1 %+31.8 %+223.8 %+43.9 %
12/01/2019 12Z+6.8 %+178.6 %+8.8 %+10.4 %-0.9 %+11.8 %-45.1 %
12/01/2019 06Z-7.1 %+107.8 %+107.8 %+22.1 %-23.7 %+79.4 %-12.3 %
12/01/2019 00Z+68.8 %-58.8 %+208.3 %+49.3 %+47.3 %+68.2 %-9.6 %
11/01/2019 18Z+96.8 %+198.5 %+59.5 %+104 %+52.7 %+183.4 %+9 %
11/01/2019 12Z+194.7 %+5.4 %+271.1 %+139.6 %+168.7 %+215.9 %+107.4 %
11/01/2019 06Z+54.3 %+197.3 %+83.6 %+37.2 %+35 %+122.5 %+14.4 %
11/01/2019 00Z+65.1 %+47.8 %+37.4 %-0.9 %+37.9 %+97.3 %+55.9 %
10/01/2019 18Z+86.7 %+48.5 %+145.3 %+137.6 %+68.3 %+134.4 %+50.2 %
10/01/2019 12Z-10.6 %-17.7 %+41.2 %-15.7 %-24.1 %-16 %-46.6 %
10/01/2019 06Z+141.4 %+9.7 %+107.1 %+102.6 %+94.7 %+118.9 %+72 %
10/01/2019 00Z+17.2 %+63.4 %-24.1 %-1.1 %-17.2 %+14.6 %-28 %
09/01/2019 18Z-32.4 %+73 %-22.8 %-14.4 %-48.4 %-50.8 %-51.8 %
09/01/2019 12Z-58.8 %+119.7 %-38.8 %-26.5 %-62.8 %-31 %-63.6 %
09/01/2019 06Z+72.8 %+9.6 %-2.1 %+0.1 %+25.8 %+59.1 %+11.2 %
Moyenne+45.3 %+55.8 %+65.6 %+32.5 %+25.3 %+75.9 %+5.6 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
16/01/2019 12Z-7.6 hPa-9.2 hPa-8.5 hPa-6.8 hPa-7.1 hPa-8.3 hPa-7.3 hPa
16/01/2019 06Z-4.7 hPa-4.9 hPa-5.3 hPa-4.9 hPa-3.8 hPa-4.4 hPa-3.6 hPa
16/01/2019 00Z-5.7 hPa-8.4 hPa-6.1 hPa-3.7 hPa-4.8 hPa-7.4 hPa-7.3 hPa
15/01/2019 18Z-11.3 hPa-12.1 hPa-13.6 hPa-12.9 hPa-9.1 hPa-11.8 hPa-10.1 hPa
15/01/2019 12Z-2.3 hPa-1.6 hPa-3.2 hPa-4.6 hPa-1.6 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.3 hPa
15/01/2019 06Z-5.1 hPa-1.7 hPa-2 hPa-5.5 hPa-6.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.3 hPa
15/01/2019 00Z-3.3 hPa-2.8 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.8 hPa-3.5 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.6 hPa
14/01/2019 18Z-8.1 hPa-4.8 hPa-6.9 hPa-10.6 hPa-8.4 hPa-6.1 hPa-6.5 hPa
14/01/2019 12Z-5.1 hPa-3.9 hPa-4 hPa-4.7 hPa-5.4 hPa-3.9 hPa-5.4 hPa
14/01/2019 06Z-5.8 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.2 hPa-5.7 hPa-6.5 hPa-3.6 hPa-5.2 hPa
14/01/2019 00Z-4.3 hPa-3 hPa-4.1 hPa-6.5 hPa-4.1 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.5 hPa
13/01/2019 18Z-3.5 hPa+-0 hPa-2 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.6 hPa-1.3 hPa-2.6 hPa
13/01/2019 12Z-6.8 hPa-3.9 hPa-8.4 hPa-8.7 hPa-5.4 hPa-5.8 hPa-5.5 hPa
13/01/2019 06Z-1.4 hPa-3.8 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.3 hPa-2.5 hPa
13/01/2019 00Z-7 hPa-5.2 hPa-4 hPa-5.8 hPa-8 hPa-5.2 hPa-6.7 hPa
12/01/2019 18Z-15.6 hPa-11.3 hPa-14.6 hPa-20 hPa-15.3 hPa-13.3 hPa-13 hPa
12/01/2019 12Z-7.7 hPa-7.6 hPa-7.8 hPa-7.4 hPa-6.9 hPa-7.2 hPa-6.9 hPa
12/01/2019 06Z-7.5 hPa-6.9 hPa-6.6 hPa-8.5 hPa-6.9 hPa-6.9 hPa-7.2 hPa
12/01/2019 00Z-8.9 hPa-6.5 hPa-6.7 hPa-8.4 hPa-9.4 hPa-6.8 hPa-8.1 hPa
11/01/2019 18Z-11.8 hPa-7.7 hPa-11.3 hPa-16 hPa-11.7 hPa-9.3 hPa-9 hPa
11/01/2019 12Z-8.9 hPa-4.4 hPa-3.8 hPa-7.4 hPa-10.4 hPa-5.7 hPa-8.4 hPa
11/01/2019 06Z-11.7 hPa-8.8 hPa-11.7 hPa-13.9 hPa-11.3 hPa-10.5 hPa-10.8 hPa
11/01/2019 00Z-4.2 hPa-4.1 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.1 hPa-5 hPa-3.6 hPa-5.3 hPa
10/01/2019 18Z-14.1 hPa-7.4 hPa-13.3 hPa-18.4 hPa-14.3 hPa-10.2 hPa-11 hPa
10/01/2019 12Z-4.6 hPa-5.6 hPa-5.4 hPa-4.6 hPa-3.3 hPa-4.7 hPa-3.8 hPa
10/01/2019 06Z-8.9 hPa-5.6 hPa-6 hPa-9.3 hPa-9.2 hPa-6.3 hPa-8 hPa
10/01/2019 00Z+0.2 hPa+0.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.4 hPa+2.2 hPa-0.7 hPa+1.1 hPa
09/01/2019 18Z-3.5 hPa-6.6 hPa-6.5 hPa-4.1 hPa-1.3 hPa-5.6 hPa-3.4 hPa
09/01/2019 12Z-8.2 hPa-12.1 hPa-12.7 hPa-10 hPa-5.8 hPa-10.7 hPa-7.9 hPa
09/01/2019 06Z+0.6 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.9 hPa
Moyenne-6.6 hPa-5.4 hPa-6.1 hPa-7.2 hPa-6.3 hPa-5.7 hPa-5.9 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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