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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Décembre 2019

Décembre 2019 - Janvier 2020 - Février 2020 - Mars 2020 - Avril 2020 - Mai 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/11/2019 18Z+2.3 °C+1.5 °C+2.8 °C+2 °C+2.7 °C+1.6 °C+2.6 °C
18/11/2019 12Z+2.5 °C+0.8 °C+2 °C+1.5 °C+3.3 °C+0.7 °C+2.8 °C
18/11/2019 06Z+1.4 °C+0.7 °C+2 °C+2.2 °C+1.9 °C+0.7 °C+1.4 °C
18/11/2019 00Z+3.7 °C+2.5 °C+2.6 °C+2.5 °C+4.4 °C+2.7 °C+4 °C
17/11/2019 18Z-0.5 °C+-0 °C+0.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.1 °C-1 °C+0.4 °C
17/11/2019 12Z+1.6 °C+0.3 °C+1.8 °C+1.7 °C+2.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.7 °C
17/11/2019 06Z-0.2 °C+0.5 °C+1.4 °C+0.3 °C-0.2 °C-0.3 °C-0.4 °C
17/11/2019 00Z-0.1 °C+0.2 °C+1.4 °C+0.7 °C+0.6 °C-0.6 °C+-0 °C
16/11/2019 18Z+3.1 °C+1.5 °C+3.1 °C+1.9 °C+3.8 °C+2.5 °C+3.5 °C
16/11/2019 12Z+0.5 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C+1.9 °C-0.5 °C+0.9 °C
16/11/2019 06Z+2.4 °C+2 °C+2.9 °C+1.4 °C+2.8 °C+1.8 °C+2.1 °C
16/11/2019 00Z+2.8 °C+1.6 °C+3.2 °C+2.3 °C+3.3 °C+1.4 °C+2.8 °C
15/11/2019 18Z-1.2 °C-1.7 °C-0.7 °C+0.1 °C-0.4 °C-2.9 °C-2.3 °C
15/11/2019 12Z+2.3 °C+0.9 °C+2.4 °C+1.8 °C+2.7 °C+0.8 °C+2.5 °C
15/11/2019 06Z+1.5 °C+0.7 °C+2.2 °C+1.9 °C+1.8 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C
15/11/2019 00Z+3.8 °C+1.9 °C+3.3 °C+2.8 °C+4.2 °C+2.2 °C+3.8 °C
14/11/2019 18Z+1.3 °C+2.1 °C+2.3 °C+0.1 °C+0.9 °C+1.7 °C+2.6 °C
14/11/2019 12Z+4.4 °C+3.4 °C+4.2 °C+2.8 °C+4.8 °C+4.1 °C+5.5 °C
14/11/2019 06Z+0.1 °C+0.8 °C+1.8 °C+0.5 °C+1.1 °C+0.2 °C+0.8 °C
14/11/2019 00Z+2.3 °C+1.3 °C+2.4 °C+2.1 °C+2.8 °C+1 °C+2.6 °C
13/11/2019 18Z+0.7 °C+0.7 °C+1.9 °C+1.2 °C+1.2 °C+0.3 °C+1.1 °C
13/11/2019 12Z-0.4 °C+0.7 °C+1.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C-0.6 °C+0.4 °C
13/11/2019 06Z+2 °C+1.8 °C+1.3 °C+1.2 °C+2.9 °C+1.6 °C+2.8 °C
13/11/2019 00Z+0.2 °C+0.2 °C-0.1 °C+0.5 °C-0.7 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C
12/11/2019 18Z+0.7 °C+0.9 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.8 °C+2.7 °C
12/11/2019 12Z+1.4 °C+2.8 °C+1.9 °C+3.1 °C+1.7 °C+3.1 °C+2 °C
12/11/2019 06Z+1.7 °C+2.4 °C+1.9 °C+2.4 °C+1.8 °C+2.5 °C+3 °C
12/11/2019 00Z+1.8 °C+2.8 °C+1.9 °C+3.7 °C+2 °C+3.4 °C-3.2 °C
11/11/2019 18Z-1.3 °C-3 °C-1.6 °C-1.4 °C-3.1 °C-2.2 °C+1 °C
11/11/2019 12Z+1.9 °C+3.2 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+1.9 °C+1.9 °C+0.4 °C
Moyenne+1.4 °C+1.1 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+1.8 °C+0.9 °C+1.6 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/11/2019 18Z+0.8 °C+0.7 °C+1.6 °C+-0 °C+0.6 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C
18/11/2019 12Z+0.2 °C-0.5 °C+0.3 °C-0.5 °C+0.6 °C+0 °C+0.6 °C
18/11/2019 06Z+3.1 °C+0.5 °C+2.6 °C+2 °C+3.4 °C+2.1 °C+3.1 °C
18/11/2019 00Z+3.1 °C+2.9 °C+3.4 °C+2.9 °C+2.7 °C+2.9 °C+2.5 °C
17/11/2019 18Z-0.9 °C-1.7 °C-1.8 °C-2.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.9 °C-0.9 °C
17/11/2019 12Z-0.1 °C-0.4 °C-0.3 °C+0.5 °C-0.1 °C-0.7 °C-1 °C
17/11/2019 06Z-0.7 °C-1.8 °C+0.3 °C-0.1 °C-0.5 °C-0.9 °C-0.5 °C
17/11/2019 00Z-1.2 °C-1.1 °C-0.7 °C-1.3 °C-1.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.7 °C
16/11/2019 18Z+2.2 °C-0.7 °C+2.3 °C+0.6 °C+2.3 °C+1.7 °C+3.1 °C
16/11/2019 12Z+2.4 °C-0.5 °C+1.5 °C+2.2 °C+2.7 °C+0.5 °C+0.6 °C
16/11/2019 06Z+0.9 °C+1.7 °C+2 °C+0.3 °C+0.7 °C+2 °C+1.5 °C
16/11/2019 00Z+0.7 °C+0.9 °C+0.7 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C
15/11/2019 18Z-1.6 °C-2.6 °C-0.9 °C+-0 °C-1.8 °C-2.4 °C-2.8 °C
15/11/2019 12Z-0.4 °C-0.4 °C-0.4 °C-0.5 °C-0.3 °C-0.5 °C+0.3 °C
15/11/2019 06Z+1.5 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+0.9 °C+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+1 °C
15/11/2019 00Z+2.5 °C+1.9 °C+2 °C+1.6 °C+2.1 °C+2.2 °C+2.3 °C
14/11/2019 18Z+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+0.9 °C-1.7 °C-0.5 °C+1.5 °C+1.6 °C
14/11/2019 12Z+2.1 °C+2.6 °C+2.4 °C+1.2 °C+2 °C+3.3 °C+3 °C
14/11/2019 06Z+1.2 °C-0.3 °C+1 °C+1 °C+1.3 °C+0.5 °C+0.6 °C
14/11/2019 00Z+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C-0.4 °C+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+0.9 °C
13/11/2019 18Z-0.6 °C-1.5 °C-0.4 °C-1.2 °C-0.9 °C-0.5 °C-0.6 °C
13/11/2019 12Z+2.6 °C-0.1 °C+2.1 °C+2.3 °C+2.7 °C+1.7 °C+2.6 °C
13/11/2019 06Z+1.9 °C+1 °C+2.1 °C+1.4 °C+1.8 °C+1.8 °C+1.6 °C
13/11/2019 00Z-1.9 °C-1.5 °C-1.1 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-0.1 °C-0.3 °C
12/11/2019 18Z-0.7 °C-1.1 °C-1.7 °C+0 °C+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+0.2 °C
12/11/2019 12Z+0.3 °C+0.7 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.9 °C+0.8 °C+2.1 °C
12/11/2019 06Z+0.1 °C+1.8 °C+1.1 °C+2.3 °C+2.3 °C+3 °C+1.7 °C
12/11/2019 00Z+0.9 °C+1.5 °C+1.1 °C+1.7 °C+1.8 °C+1.9 °C-0.9 °C
11/11/2019 18Z-2.1 °C-1.8 °C-1.8 °C-0.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C+3.6 °C
11/11/2019 12Z+0.4 °C+2.7 °C+2.6 °C+4.2 °C+2.7 °C+4.2 °C-1.4 °C
Moyenne+0.6 °C+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+0.5 °C+0.8 °C+0.9 °C+0.9 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/11/2019 18Z+93.1 %-55.9 %+47.2 %+64.8 %+63.6 %+50.8 %+36 %
18/11/2019 12Z+43.5 %-34.1 %+43.3 %+13.8 %+42.3 %+49.6 %+19.9 %
18/11/2019 06Z-60.1 %-82.5 %-91.7 %-40.4 %-53.3 %-80.8 %-68.7 %
18/11/2019 00Z-43.5 %-82.4 %-70.6 %-68.3 %-21 %-58.4 %+8.3 %
17/11/2019 18Z-7.6 %+27.8 %-38.8 %-57.6 %-36.4 %+11.9 %-64 %
17/11/2019 12Z+15 %-28.5 %-31.8 %-24.6 %+33.3 %+46.4 %+4.9 %
17/11/2019 06Z-28 %+80 %+31.9 %-23.7 %-47.6 %+24.7 %-42.1 %
17/11/2019 00Z+6.9 %-1 %+5.1 %+9.5 %+18 %+6.1 %-38.1 %
16/11/2019 18Z+33.9 %+49.2 %-14.6 %+49.4 %+24.1 %-9.6 %-50.2 %
16/11/2019 12Z-58.5 %-95 %-92.9 %-56.3 %-49.9 %-59.1 %-47.7 %
16/11/2019 06Z+69.7 %+86.7 %+44.3 %+46.4 %+68 %+86 %+51.5 %
16/11/2019 00Z+94.4 %-85.8 %+2 %+19.7 %+78.8 %+51.9 %+41.4 %
15/11/2019 18Z-6.2 %-89.2 %-25.9 %-43.8 %-15.8 %-10 %-18.5 %
15/11/2019 12Z+83.6 %-37.5 %+49.3 %+31.8 %+72.3 %+100 %+65.4 %
15/11/2019 06Z+50.1 %-32.1 %+22.5 %+10.4 %+17.7 %+6.7 %+9.8 %
15/11/2019 00Z+76.7 %-35.2 %+25.7 %-3 %+50.8 %+35.5 %+13.1 %
14/11/2019 18Z+66.3 %-14.7 %+53.1 %+55.9 %+50.5 %+77.8 %+14 %
14/11/2019 12Z+65.7 %-15.7 %+100.4 %+113.1 %+90.1 %+117.8 %+54.1 %
14/11/2019 06Z-26.6 %-57.3 %-18.1 %-35.8 %-4.9 %-22.7 %-39 %
14/11/2019 00Z+106.5 %-40.9 %+42.6 %+42.5 %+74.6 %+49.7 %+44.9 %
13/11/2019 18Z+2.7 %+64.7 %+51.4 %+81.5 %-10.6 %+42.3 %-28.9 %
13/11/2019 12Z-89.6 %-34.6 %-77.5 %-79 %-88.3 %-79.7 %-84.8 %
13/11/2019 06Z-19 %-82.3 %-51.8 %-15.7 %-20.7 %-42.1 %-40.8 %
13/11/2019 00Z+44.9 %+64.8 %+23.4 %-36.8 %-21.6 %-37.3 %-21.3 %
12/11/2019 18Z-20.9 %-37.9 %-24.8 %-18.9 %-28.3 %-32 %+129 %
12/11/2019 12Z-32.5 %+130.9 %+127.8 %+97 %+95.2 %+52.4 %-22.4 %
12/11/2019 06Z+62.7 %-41.5 %+19.1 %-22.8 %+16.1 %-55.4 %+10.9 %
12/11/2019 00Z-77.3 %-33.2 %-8.8 %+14.6 %-23.6 %-18.4 %-68.9 %
11/11/2019 18Z-4 %-46.6 %-82.3 %-67.7 %-16.9 %-71 %-69.8 %
11/11/2019 12Z-63.9 %-66.2 %-56.2 %-76.5 %-37.7 %-69 %+113 %
Moyenne+12.6 %-20.9 %+0.1 %-0.7 %+10.6 %+5.5 %-3 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/11/2019 18Z-5.7 hPa-0.1 hPa-3.8 hPa-7.7 hPa-6.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.4 hPa
18/11/2019 12Z-6.7 hPa-2.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-6.3 hPa-7.9 hPa-3.8 hPa-6.1 hPa
18/11/2019 06Z+11.1 hPa+13.1 hPa+9.8 hPa+8.2 hPa+11.5 hPa+12 hPa+12.4 hPa
18/11/2019 00Z+4.5 hPa+4.3 hPa+4.3 hPa+4.8 hPa+4 hPa+4.4 hPa+3.5 hPa
17/11/2019 18Z+2.3 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.9 hPa+2.7 hPa+4.7 hPa+0.3 hPa+2.1 hPa
17/11/2019 12Z-1.5 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.9 hPa-0.2 hPa-2.4 hPa-0.6 hPa-2.1 hPa
17/11/2019 06Z-4.2 hPa-3.9 hPa-7.3 hPa-7.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-4.9 hPa-2.9 hPa
17/11/2019 00Z-2.4 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.9 hPa-4.5 hPa-2.5 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.9 hPa
16/11/2019 18Z-1.8 hPa+3.5 hPa-2.4 hPa-5.3 hPa-1.8 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.4 hPa
16/11/2019 12Z+9.2 hPa+6.7 hPa+7.2 hPa+9.2 hPa+9.7 hPa+7.4 hPa+8.2 hPa
16/11/2019 06Z-8.5 hPa-4.2 hPa-7.9 hPa-11.4 hPa-8.5 hPa-6.1 hPa-6.7 hPa
16/11/2019 00Z-0.1 hPa+4.2 hPa+4.2 hPa+0.5 hPa-2.3 hPa+3.5 hPa-0.1 hPa
15/11/2019 18Z+2.1 hPa-0.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.7 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.1 hPa
15/11/2019 12Z-3.4 hPa-0.8 hPa-0.8 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.1 hPa-1.6 hPa-3.8 hPa
15/11/2019 06Z-2.7 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.8 hPa-3.4 hPa-3 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.8 hPa
15/11/2019 00Z-1.1 hPa+2 hPa+2.5 hPa-0.8 hPa-2.7 hPa+1.3 hPa-0.9 hPa
14/11/2019 18Z-8.5 hPa-6.7 hPa-9.8 hPa-8.7 hPa-7 hPa-8.3 hPa-8.1 hPa
14/11/2019 12Z-8.2 hPa-1.1 hPa-4.5 hPa-10.6 hPa-10.1 hPa-3.8 hPa-6.6 hPa
14/11/2019 06Z+2.9 hPa+3.2 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.8 hPa+3 hPa
14/11/2019 00Z-2.2 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.4 hPa-2.4 hPa-3.5 hPa+1.1 hPa-1.1 hPa
13/11/2019 18Z-1.1 hPa+1.3 hPa-1 hPa-2.9 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa
13/11/2019 12Z+7 hPa+6 hPa+2.7 hPa+5.5 hPa+8.2 hPa+5.9 hPa+7 hPa
13/11/2019 06Z+5.2 hPa+5.6 hPa+3.9 hPa+2.7 hPa+5.6 hPa+5 hPa+5.8 hPa
13/11/2019 00Z-7.2 hPa-7.6 hPa-7.7 hPa-5 hPa-7 hPa-5.8 hPa+4.3 hPa
12/11/2019 18Z+5.1 hPa+4 hPa+3.4 hPa+4.2 hPa+4.8 hPa+5.2 hPa-8.3 hPa
12/11/2019 12Z-1.9 hPa-5 hPa-10.3 hPa-9.2 hPa-4.3 hPa-6.2 hPa+1.4 hPa
12/11/2019 06Z+4.4 hPa-0.2 hPa-2.2 hPa+2 hPa+2.8 hPa+3.3 hPa+1.9 hPa
12/11/2019 00Z+3.8 hPa+2.9 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.3 hPa+3.1 hPa+2.3 hPa+6.8 hPa
11/11/2019 18Z+2.9 hPa+3.5 hPa+7.6 hPa+8.5 hPa+3.8 hPa+6 hPa+2.3 hPa
11/11/2019 12Z+4.1 hPa-1 hPa-1.3 hPa+3.9 hPa+2.4 hPa+3.7 hPa+-0 hPa
Moyenne-0.1 hPa+1 hPa-0.5 hPa-1 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.2 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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